Home advantage isn’t what it used to be in the Premier League. The pandemic changed everything, and even with crowds back, the patterns have shifted dramatically from historical norms.
I’ve analyzed three seasons of post-pandemic home advantage data to understand which teams still benefit significantly from playing at home and which apps price this correctly.
The Evolving Reality of Premier League Home Advantage
Post-Pandemic Shift
Pre-pandemic, Premier League home advantage was worth roughly 0.4 goals per game. That’s dropped to about 0.25 goals – still significant, but much reduced. In the 2024-25 season (as of March 2025), the margin was even lower, at just 0.04 goals per game in favor of the hosts.
Varying Crowd Impact
Crowd impact varies enormously between teams. Liverpool’s Anfield atmosphere remains intimidating, while some teams show minimal home/away performance differences.
Teams with Genuine Home Advantage
Strongholds of Support
- Liverpool at Anfield: Still formidable at home. Their pressing intensity increases noticeably with crowd support, creating genuine home advantage worth betting on.
- Newcastle at St. James’ Park: The Geordie faithful create atmospheric advantages that affect both Newcastle’s performance and opposition comfort levels.
- Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park: Small ground, passionate support, intimidating for visiting teams. Palace’s home record significantly exceeds their away form.
- Brighton at the Amex: Their possession-based style works better at home where crowd support provides confidence for technical play.
Teams Where Home Advantage Has Diminished
Quality Transcends Venue
- Arsenal at the Emirates: Once fortress-like, now shows minimal home advantage. Their possession style works equally well anywhere.
- Chelsea at Stamford Bridge: Home and away records are remarkably similar. Their quality transcends venue advantages.
- Manchester City at the Etihad: Dominate regardless of venue. Home advantage is negligible when you’re that much better than most opponents. In fact, their three Etihad Stadium losses in a recent season matched their total from the prior three seasons combined.
How Apps Price Premier League Home Advantage
Accuracy in Odds
- Sky Bet: Sky Bet adjusts odds most accurately for genuine home advantage. Their pricing reflects current realities rather than historical assumptions.
- William Hill: William Hill sometimes overprices traditional home advantage, creating value on away teams against supposedly strong home sides.
- Betfair Exchange: Betfair Exchange often provides the most accurate pricing as it reflects current market sentiment rather than historical models.
Identifying Value Opportunities
Exploiting Market Discrepancies
- Overpriced Home Favorites: Teams with weak genuine home advantage but strong historical reputations create away value.
- Underpriced Home Underdogs: Teams with genuine home advantage but poor overall reputation offer home value.
Venue and Contextual Factors
Beyond the Pitch
- Pitch Dimensions: Some teams’ playing styles suit their home pitch dimensions better than standard-sized away venues.
- Travel Factors: London teams playing each other minimize travel advantages. Northern teams visiting London face different challenges.
- Atmospheric Timing: Evening matches often generate better atmospheres than afternoon kickoffs, affecting home advantage.
Seasonal Home Advantage Patterns
Fluctuations Throughout the Campaign
- Early Season: Home advantage often stronger as teams settle into new seasons with familiar surroundings.
- Christmas Period: Congested fixtures reduce home advantage as travel becomes more demanding for all teams.
- End Season: Pressure situations can amplify or reduce home advantage depending on what teams are playing for (e.g., title race vs. safety). Historically, the home win rate has been higher from Gameweek 28 onwards in the Premier League.
Betting Strategies Around Home Advantage
Informed Wagering
- Focus on teams with genuine home advantage against opponents that travel poorly.
- Target away value when bookmakers overestimate traditional home advantage that no longer exists.
- Consider crowd factors—matches with restricted attendance or hostile atmospheres create different dynamics.
- Monitor injury reports affecting key home performers who thrive on crowd support.
Advanced Home Advantage Analysis
Deeper Dive into Data
- Track referee appointments at specific venues. Some officials are influenced more by crowds than others. Studies suggest VAR may have reduced referee bias related to crowd influence.
- Study weather patterns affecting different grounds. Wind, rain, and temperature impact various venues differently.
- Analyze squad rotation patterns. Some managers rest players more for away matches, affecting home advantage calculations.
- Consider European competition impacts. Teams playing Thursday night European matches often struggle at home the following weekend due to fatigue.
The Future of Home Advantage
Premier League home advantage continues evolving. VAR reduces referee bias (though its overall impact on home advantage is debated, with some studies showing a trivial effect on Premier League home advantage specifically), improved travel conditions minimize fatigue, and tactical evolution changes how teams approach away matches.
Apps that adapt pricing to current realities rather than historical assumptions provide better value opportunities for informed bettors.
Understanding genuine home advantage in the modern Premier League requires looking beyond traditional assumptions to current performance data.